Overseas markets have growth potential, and demand in Europe and the United States is different from that in Southeast Asia and India. According to Frost & Sullivan, the sales of electric two-wheelers in India, ASEAN, Europe, and the United States will be 0.8/6.9/7.9/0.7 million units in 2022, accounting for 4%/35%/40%/4% of the total overseas sales, and the sales CAGR from 2018 to 2022 will be 100%/26%/30%/38% respectively. Electric bicycles dominate the electric two-wheeler market in Europe and the United States, while Southeast Asia and India have a large number of motorcycles, and the trend of electrification has initially emerged, and electric two-wheelers have great growth potential.
The sales of electric bicycles in Europe and the United States have grown steadily. Cycling culture and environmental protection concepts are prevalent in Europe and the United States, and the demand for electric two-wheelers is derived from cycling. European cities are small, bicycle culture has a long history, and electric bicycles are maturing. The electric two-wheeler market is dominated by electric bicycles. According to the European Bicycle Industry Association, in 2021, the sales of bicycles and electric bicycles in Europe exceeded 22 million, of which electric bicycle sales reached 5.06 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and the penetration rate relative to bicycles increased to about 23.2%. Automobile travel is the mainstream in the United States, and the annual sales of bicycles are between 15 million and 20 million. Compared with Japan and Europe, electric bicycles started late in the United States, and the consumer group tends to be bicycle enthusiasts and extreme sports enthusiasts. Since 2020, the epidemic and policies such as the three-level classification bill for electric bicycles have driven growth. According to data from the China Economic Industry Research Institute, in 2021, the sales of electric bicycles in the United States reached 550,000, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and the sales CAGR from 2017 to 2021 reached 25.7%.
The electric two-wheeled vehicle market in Southeast Asia is in its early stages of development and has great potential. Due to dense population, low consumption level, and less extreme weather, two-wheeled travel has become the main mode of transportation in Southeast Asia, which is also one of the regions with the highest number of motorcycles in the world. According to ASEANstats data, there are currently about 250 million motorcycles in Southeast Asia. Under the pressure of energy and environmental protection, electrification has become a major trend in the two-wheeled vehicle market in Southeast Asia, but the current electrification penetration rate is still low. Japanese brands dominate the traditional motorcycle market in Southeast Asia. In 2022, Honda’s motorcycle market share in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand exceeded 70%, and Honda and Yamaha’s combined market share in Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia exceeded 80%. At present, the electrification of motorcycles in Southeast Asia is still in its infancy. Except for Vietnam, the electric penetration rate of the five major markets (Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines) is less than 3%. In terms of gasoline motorcycle sales, a total of 12.27 million units were sold in the six Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) in 2022. However, according to Marklines, the sales of electric motorcycles by Yadea and Vinfast in the five major markets in Southeast Asia in 2022 were only 82,000 and 88,000 respectively, which is a significant gap compared with the sales of gasoline motorcycles. There is great room for the future development of electrification.
