1. Why Tesla bets on large cylindrical batteries
The 4680 large cylindrical battery was released by Tesla at the first “Battery Day” in 2020, taking into account both production efficiency and comprehensive performance. Since its release, the 46 large cylindrical battery has been highly anticipated and is regarded by foreign media as a product that “may change the future of the entire electric vehicle industry.” However, ideals are full, but reality is very skinny. Although Tesla has successfully manufactured a batch of 4680 large cylindrical batteries, the only model that uses this battery now is the pure electric pickup Cybertruck.
Four years ago, when Tesla released the 4680 large cylindrical battery, its core was to take into account performance and efficiency, and to achieve the ultimate cost, in preparation for the release of the cheapest new Tesla car in history.
Tesla emphasized that their battery cathode will no longer use the expensive cobalt element, but will focus on the use of high-nickel cathodes. It can be seen that the key to the success of large cylindrical batteries is whether they can significantly reduce costs.
The reason why Tesla bets on large cylindrical batteries.
1. First of all, Tesla developed the 4680 battery without tabs based on dry electrode technology not for leading performance, but mainly considering regulations and costs. Because the site and labor in the United States are too expensive, which is very different from China, innovative technology is used to reduce costs. Therefore, cylindrical batteries are the easiest to produce using automated equipment, just like the production of cans as shown in Tesla’s video.
2. Tesla’s engineering team mentioned that there are unions in the United States, and civil engineering must use union people, and the working hours are also very short, and vacations must be taken. Therefore, Tesla built the Austin factory very slowly, and production efficiency must be fully considered during planning. In terms of manufacturing costs, even if dry anode and dry cathode are used together, the total manufacturing cost will only save about 18% (the cost of the electrode segment can be reduced by 50%).
3. At present, there is a situation of oversupply in China, and there is a shortage of supply in Europe and the United States, and the price of batteries is very high. For the 4680 dry electrode, the core is still compliance with regulations, mainly because the positive electrode removes the NMP solvent. Overall, Tesla uses large cylinders to improve production efficiency and uses dry electrodes to meet regulatory standards.
In addition, China’s battery manufacturing equipment is updated every two or three years, while Europe and the United States need more than two years from purchase to assembly. From this point of view, they will never catch up with China. Therefore, companies like Tesla will find another way to develop more efficient large cylindrical batteries in a field that is difficult for Chinese companies to replicate in the short term.
Of course, Tesla’s vision is to change the current global energy structure, and to maximize the industry, scale effect, and reduce costs. Dry electrodes are also designed to enable more companies to produce and make battery supply more diversified.
2. Are large cylindrical batteries doomed to fail?
Since large cylindrical batteries have efficiency and cost advantages overseas, Tesla has failed in the production process of 4680 batteries. In May of this year, he asked the 4680 battery team to reduce the manufacturing cost of batteries by the end of the year, making self-produced batteries cheaper than suppliers, and the production capacity problem must be solved simultaneously. Now Tesla seems to have lost its original patience with 4680 batteries. The ultimate goal is to obtain batteries on a large scale at low cost, which may not be produced by itself, but can also be from suppliers.
Summary: Tesla’s original intention of betting on the 4680 large cylindrical battery was to reduce manufacturing costs by improving production efficiency under the condition of high civil engineering and labor costs abroad, and to better meet regulations by removing NMP solvents to promote energy transformation worldwide. However, with the popularization of CTP technology, the application of low-cost lithium iron phosphate batteries has long been spread throughout the East.
When Tesla can obtain battery supply on a large scale at low cost, Tesla no longer has to stick to large cylinders.
